Celebrity Big Brother – analysis from opening night

We have been asked to do some analysis on Celebrity Big Brother, and so we have looked to focus first of all on the opening night.  As usual, we have focused on data from twitter, and downloaded anything relating to Celebrity Big Brother.

To start with, let’s look at which of the contestants comes up in context with words like ‘best’, ‘favourite’,’great’,’funny’ or ‘cool’.  This is shown in the figure below, which shows how each contestant fared during the day and evening of the show.  Scores are shown for all tweets up to 6pm, between the hours of 6pm and 8pm, between 8pm and 10pm, and finally from 10pm until midnight.

This analysis shows that Amy Childs has a clear peak as the favourite contestant from first impressions.  Sally Bercow comes in second, and Jedward come in third.  It is noticeable that Tara Reid does not score at all – so no mentions of Tara in context with ‘favourable’ words.

By contrast, let’s look at who comes up on context against words suggesting negative sentiment, such as ‘annoying’, ‘idiot’, ‘stupid’, and ‘hate’.

This is shown in the figure below, and this time we see a different picture emerging.  Here due to a lower number of tweets the analysis simply shows the total score over the entire evening.

This time we can see that Bobby Sabel is clearly attracting alot of negative sentiment.  Yet again we see no comments at all made against Tara Reid, and Kerry Katona also scores very low.

How does this translate against who the public say they want to win?  We can look at this by viewing the score for the contestants against words like ‘win’ or ‘winning’.  This is shown in the figure below.

This time we can see how the scoring changes over the course of the evening.  Before the program even airs we can see that there is a fair amount of support for Jedward and Amy Childs, with Lucien Laviscount and Paddy Doherty also showing up in the analysis.

During the early part of the show in the evening, we see Jedward and Amy Childs neck and neck, with Paddy Doherty also doing well.  Sally Bercow comes through behind these three in fourth position.

The number of tweets after the show has finished drops dramatically, and we can see much smaller numbers, showing perhaps that the public are not discussing the show outside of the program.  This may have an impact on viewing figures over the whole series, since Channel 4’s Big Brother had 24 hour, round the clock viewing available through one of its sister channel networks.  Channel 5 (probably in order to reduce costs), have instead gone only with an extended highlights show, and also instead of a dedicated Big Brother website, are publishing content straight onto youtube and facebook.

The betting odds for the contestants largely tally with the findings shown above, with one or two notable exceptions.  Kerry Katona is listed as second favourite by the bookies – I suppose we should remember that she won I’m a Celebrity in 2004, so she has past experience of reality TV shows.  However in our analysis she does not show up at all.  If we look at what words do come up in context with Kerry Katona,  we see the word ‘drugs’ – perhaps suggesting that the public view her more negatively due to her recent drug problems.

However, we should also always remember that the demographic for Twitter does not necessarily reflect the demographic of the voting public – as we have seen from previous studies on X Factor, it is not always the case that the analysis found from Twitter will match the actual result of the show.  It is possible to monitor trends of individual contestants over time though, and this is something that we will look at in more detail in the coming days.

We will be continuing this analysis over the coming days and will also look to provide more in depth analysis of individual contestants, in particular why the public think a certain way, and how this changes over the course of the show.

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