Our analysis last night during the first part of the Strictly Come Dancing show indicated that although Matt was the favourite individual contestant, that Kara and Artem as a couple were more favoured, and that this could influence the final outcome of the competition.
Unfortunately we had not realised that there was to be a second window for voting, and so were unable to present the results of tweets made during this second show at the time (we wrongly thought it was a straight forward results show). However we can look back now and see what the analysis of the tweets made between 21:05 and 22:00 last night tells us (i.e. after Pamela was told she was in 3rd position).
The analysis shows a huge trend towards Kara, and this is highlighted in the graph shown below:
This graph shows the trend of votes over the course of the past week, and shows the proportion of the score for each contestant when compared against each other (the person with the highest score has 100%). Initially, and up until the show itself last night, Matt was the clear favourite, with Kara and Pamela, level pegging behind him. Then during the course of the 1st show last night, Kara experienced a surge in popularity, taking her to an equivalent score as Matt, leaving Pamela behind. This surge of votes resulted in Pamela being voted out of the show in 3rd place.
There then followed a 2nd show, where the voting lines were re-opened. Both contestants had a further dance, and we can see that with Pamela out of the show, the vast majority of votes appears to have transferred directly to Kara – her score catapults above Matt’s and shows her to be the clear winner, based on twitter data.
This gives us an insight into the voting intentions of the public, and perhaps indicates that despite Matt being the favourite all week, he had very little chance of winning since Kara’s votes may well have transferred to Pamela had she been placed in 3rd.
In addition, we can see that the trend for the dancing partners was an important factor in the outcome for this year’s competition. Aliona received only 30% of the score that Artem did in the final segment of the show, indicating either that everyone loved Artem or that they did not like Aliona, or both.
This shows again the power of this type of analysis and how it can be used to track a changing public opinion, and give an insight into the reasons why.