Strictly Come Dancing prediction 18th December post-show

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Just as in the show, we have collected tweets up until the 8:30pm cut off, and undertaken analysis on the tweets that were made during the show and immediately before and after. This resulted in approximately 10 thousand tweets being made and downloaded, and we have updated our prediction based on this analysis.

The new ordering based on the public’s reaction on Twitter to the performances of the celebrities during the show is:

  1. Matt Baker
  2. Kara Tointon
  3. Pamela Stephenson
This ordering has the same winner as previously, and would indicate that Matt has been a consistent performer in terms of voting intention from the tweeting public, if not the general public.
However, if we include the scores from their dancing partners as well, then we get a completely different picture.  Previously the scores of the dancing partners were not high enough to alter the overall picture, but in this analysis they are sufficiently high to dramatically alter the ordering, as shown below:
  1. Kara Tointon and Artem
  2. Pamela Stephenson and James
  3. Matt Baker and Aliona
This seems to indicate that the winner is particularly open this year.  The extra score for Kara and Artem may reflect the ongoing story relating to their romance?  If so, it would appear to be a good tactic to obtain additional votes.
We should also comment on Pamela’s vote – the demographic of her voting public is likely to be older (as she is also older) and it is unlikely that this demographic is well represented on Twitter.  This may mean that her score is being under represented here.  However as shown above, the three contestants are very close in scores based on the tweets made during the show, so the contest appears to be very tight – anyone can win! 

Once the results are out we will revisit the contextual analysis of each of the contestants and see if the Twitter data can give us an additional insight into the reasoning behind the public vote.
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