BBC Sports Personality of the Year prediction 17th December

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As with the X Factor and Strictly Come Dancing analysis, we are analysing twitter data to see if we can predict the winner of the BBC’s Sports Personality of the Year.

As noted previously, the X Factor show had a huge number of tweets made about it, with almost a quarter of a million being made on a single Saturday. Strictly has a much lower twitter following, with 25,000 tweets being made in the past week in the run up to the final. The Sports Personality of the Year has even fewer, with approximately 5,000 tweets being made in the last week.

However, we have still been able to undertake our analysis, and the following list has been obtained, in order of likelihood to win:

  1. Tony McCoy
  2. Mark Cavendish
  3. Graeme McDowell
  4. Amy Williams
  5. Jessica Ennis
  6. Tom Daley
  7. Lee Westwood
  8. Phil Taylor
  9. Graeme Swann
  10. David Haye
There are some interesting things to note from our analysis.  Jessica Ennis and Amy Williams are very close to each other, and indeed the ordering was the other way around until today’s twitter data was included.  It will be interesting to see if the ordering for the girls remains the same over the weekend.  This seems to indicate that there has been a brief surge for Amy, which is likely to be due to the fact that BBC Sport has profiled Amy today.  (Jessica Ennis was profiled over a week ago).
In addition, analysis of the data shows that there was a surge in twitter traffic for Mark Cavendish earlier in the week.  Perhaps this was due to his profile being the first one to be put up on the BBC website (the BBC did them in alphabetical order), but the data shows that his tweets are decreasing day by day.  It looks like the ordering based on tomorrow’s data will push Mark further down the list.
We will redo the analysis tomorrow and see if the ordering has changed.
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